Team ratings. Each offense and defense gets a composite from your sheet: 45% EPA/play, 30% pass EPA, 25% success rate, all measured against the league average. Defense ratings are "EPA allowed," so lower is better.
Raw score. A team's expected points = 22 + (its offense rating + the opponent's defense rating) × 62 plays × 0.55. The 0.55 shrinks early-season numbers toward average. Home field is worth 1.5 points (0.5 for the London game).
Blend with Vegas. The final projection is 40% EPA model and 60% market line. Vegas is sharp, so the model only moves the number where the data disagrees with it.
Probabilities. Cover and win chances use a normal curve around the projection (SD 13.5 for margin, 13.0 for totals).
Edge Score (0–10). How far the model's probability clears the break-even for the price. Spreads and totals use −110 (52.4% break-even), with a small bump when the projection crosses 3 or 7. Moneylines use the posted price and are discounted for long shots above +250.